What are the potential consequences of Trump’s humiliation of Zelensky?

 In recent days, the meeting between the Presidents of the United States and Ukraine at the White House escalated into a heated dispute. Donald Trump accused Zelensky of “gambling with World War III,” and Zelensky canceled the proposed mineral agreement. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance also accused Zelensky of ingratitude. These tensions led to the cancellation of a press conference and the early departure of the Ukrainian delegation from the White House. In this article, we aim to examine the issue of how Trump’s humiliation of Zelensky and, on a larger scale, the potential withdrawal of U.S. support for Ukraine could have global repercussions.

1- Impact on Global Peace or Insecurity: In the first section, two opposing analyses can be presented, and it is difficult to pinpoint whether Trump’s pressure on Zelensky will precisely bring peace or lead to increased insecurity or war. One analysis suggests that Trump’s pressure on Zelensky might get him to the negotiating table with Russia, resulting in peace for Europe. However, a contrasting analysis posits that this situation could encourage Russia and Putin to escalate geopolitical tensions with other European countries, including Poland. Yet, none of these scenarios can be predicted with certainty, and future developments, along with the behavior of Putin, Zelensky, and Trump, will shape the future scenarios.

2-The Dominance of Realism over Liberalism and Neoliberalism: In a situation where liberal and neoliberal countries are unwilling to support their allies against other nations, and the U.S. has effectively abandoned Zelensky with the change of president, the liberal and neoliberal paradigm will somewhat recede in the face of the realism paradigm.

3- Increased Divisions Among NATO Members: The current developments and the United States abandonment of Ukraine, which, despite not being a NATO member, leads NATO’s fight against Russia, will lead to increased divisions among NATO members. Future developments may exacerbate distrust among NATO members and even reduce other countries’ willingness to join NATO.

4-Decreased Global Trust in the United States and Reduced American Power: As the United States turns its back on Ukraine, which acts as the West’s foot soldier against Russia, this will create a climate of distrust, especially from a security perspective, between the U.S. and its allies. Countries may increasingly seek to diversify their security relations and, consequently, their economic ties globally. This could intensify power polarizations in the world between the U.S. and China, and even Russia, while also creating a global shift towards China, reducing American power.

5- Effects on the Ukraine War: The withdrawal of U.S. support for Ukraine could signal to Moscow that Western support for Kyiv is waning. Russia may exploit this situation to increase its attacks or expand its occupied territories in Ukraine.

6-Effects on the European Union: In the best-case scenario, if Trump’s reduction of support for Ukraine leads to peace, the shadow of Russia, similar to that of the Soviet Union, will loom over all of Europe. This is because, with Zelensky’s humiliation, Russia will effectively emerge victorious in the Ukraine war, fueling fear and panic about the Russians within the European Union. However, there is also a positive aspect for the EU. Suppose the Ukraine war ends and sanctions against Russia are lifted. In that case, the export of Russian energy resources to the EU will resume.

7- Changes in Countries’ Security Considerations: The distrust arising from the Ukrainian experience may lead to significant changes in countries’ security considerations, with no country wanting to become the foot soldier of the U.S. or, in a broader sense, the foot soldier of great powers. This could also extend to the Caucasus and the Middle East, impacting security and economic issues on the periphery of Iran.

8-Increased Russian Influence: The portrayal of Zelensky as a defeated and humiliated figure, especially while parts of Ukrainian territory are under Russian control, will ultimately enhance Russia’s credibility, power, and influence on the global stage.

Conclusion:

Overall, Trump’s behavior towards Zelensky could have widespread international consequences. On the one hand, it may increase pressure for peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia; conversely, it could escalate geopolitical tensions and enhance Russian influence. This approach could also lead to decreased global trust in the United States and increased divisions among NATO members. Ultimately, Europe faces two challenges: it must either prepare for increased Russian influence or seize the opportunity of the war’s end to improve economic relations.